Kjønnsfordeling i en gruppe av to barn

[m^2]

when the Monty Hall problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine claiming the published solution was wrong



(problemet stod beskrevet i Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in Parade magazine in 1990)

[Esme]

Her er problemet:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which he knows has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Whitaker 1990)


Men her, såvidt jeg husker så ble løsningen intuitivt riktig om man tenker seg 1000 dører. Av disse 1000 velger man en dør, programlederen åpner 998 dører med geiter bak. Bør du da bytte dør?